Sunday 27 June 2010

Wimbledon, the World Cup, and the price of petrol



Having spent much of the last week vegging out watching Wimbledon and the World Cup, I am struck by the contrast between the slick appeals system at Wimbledon, and the complete absence of a similar system, or even calls for a similar system, at the World Cup. This is despite the fact that bad refereeing decisions have a bigger impact in football, where one goal often is decisive, than in tennis, where hundreds of points are played every match.

For instance, when Italy was down 1-2 against Slovenia, Fabio Quagliarella appeared to have equalized. The goal was disallowed because of an offside call. Replays showed that Quagliarella was onside. If Italy had referred that decision to a third umpire, the goal would have been allowed, with potentially huge consequences. I thought the USA were also robbed of a glorious win against Slovenia, when their goal to go up 3-2 was disallowed. Yet, none of the players, managers or talking heads on TV were outraged at this injustice, or were calling for third umpires. The technology clearly exists. There just doesn’t seem to be any underlying or latent demand for referrals in football. How come?

Dan Ariely, an always entertaining economist, might have a clue. Here, he talks about why we are much more sensitive to the price of petrol than, say, to the price of milk. He thinks it is because:

For the several minutes that I stand at the pump, all I do is stare at the growing total on the meter — there is nothing else to do. And I have time to remember how much it cost a year ago, two years ago and even six years ago.

I suspect that if I stood next to the yogurt case in the supermarket for five minutes every week with nothing to do but stare at the price, I would also know how much it has gone up — and I might become outraged when yogurt passed the $2 mark.


The point is, there is a natural break in the rhythm of our activity when we buy petrol, which is not there when we walk down super market aisles sticking stuff into a trolley. That break changes the way we absorb and respond to information.

With tennis, there is a natural break in the activity after every point. That break makes it easier to work up a rage at bad umpiring calls (remember McEnroe?). That break also makes it easy to insert a referral into the game. Ditto for cricket.

With football or basketball, the ball is back in play immediately. The clock is ticking down. There is less opportunity to work up a rage about a bad decision. Players and fans can't dwell on the past because the future is already playing. Inserting a referral into the game breaks up the tempo of the game in an unnatural, annoying way.

While it is disappointing that Italy crashed out (in the interests of full disclosure, I had a bet on Italy winning the World Cup at 18/1), maybe this is good for the game. A sport with no referrals teaches us to suck up the referee’s calls, shut up, and get on with the game. Maybe, in that way, football builds character.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune,
Or to take arms against a sea of troubles,
And by opposing end them?"

I buy the point about why it stands out more in tennis or cricket. But, the outcome feels all wrong. In a game of skill it interposes chance, and makes a material difference. I would turn it on its head. The challenge is not how you prevent the unnatural breaks damaging the game, it is how you get the decisions so quickly that there is no visible impact on the game. Why don't linesmen have ~hawkeye making margin calls in real time so that they can flag them? And a few margin calls the wrong way would surely be much better than what we have today.

Same for offside - it's easy to call it in real time if you have video processing- why doesn't that feed to the umpire?

Of course I am fairly disinterested in watching team sports, so I am probably not the person whose opinion should be counted strongly!

Greg

Prithvi Chandrasekhar said...

Exactly Greg. I like the idea tweaking the technology/ process to help the officials without disrupting the game.

Line-outs, goal-ins and offsides can all be handled very well by existing technology, without the much disruption to the rhythm of the game. FIFA clearly has the resources to buy that technology for big tournaments like the World Cup. The really interesting question is, why haven't they acted on it?

Maybe today's disallowed England (Frank Lampard) goal is the trigger needed for FIFA to buy the technology needed. But somehow, it doubt it will happen. I remember some awful line-out calls from the last World Cup semi-final. Yet, FIFA seem to be decided that we're all better off just accepting the bad calls as a part of the game.