Friday 5 October 2007

Blogger Econometrics

Greg Mankiw thinks he has had 3,000,000 visitors to his blog.

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2007/10/3000000.html

This was my comment on his blog...with a helpful link to direct some traffic to my blog:

Sitemeter also measures the time each visitor spends on your site. Fifteen of the last twenty visitors had spend zero seconds. And the other five had spent less than a minute.

Sure, this blog is great. And fellow bloggers like me spend a lot of time here. But 3 million visitors is a huge over estimate of your effective reach.

Wednesday 3 October 2007

Learning from Jews

Indian-Americans looking to Jews for inspiration. I love this parallel.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/02/us/02hindu.html?ex=1349064000&en=fcef565a371c4cfe&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

The Indian diaspora becoming powerful advocates for the Indian state is a big story. Absolutely. But the even bigger story is about identity.

Jews have also been astonishingly successful in retaining a deep sense of Jewish identity for over 2000 years, even while integrating with and absorbing from the cultures they're embedded in. Being able to maintain this hyphenated identity over many generations is the key. If this dual identity is maintained, the political influence and the cultural creativity will naturally follow.

Saturday 29 September 2007

He’s Happier, She’s Less So

Nice article on the NYT on how happy women and men are.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/26/business/26leonhardt.html?ex=1348545600&en=594e67d014f6dc88&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink

Today's women have many more choices than their mothers or grandmothers. This is good.
However, choice in itself does not make people more happy. People with more choices are more responsible for their own destiny. This responsibility can, and does, feel onerous.

"All women in my society are housewives, therefore, I am a housewife" is a very comfortable position. "I am a smart, educated woman who chose to walk away from a lucrative, satisfying career to be a housewife" is a much less comfortable position. It's totally unsurprising that women in this position report being less happy.

What the research misses is that these less happy women are better off than their mothers and grandmothers who never had the option of having a career.

This is a serious argument worth making. Serious and influential people, including Professor Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago, have argued that reducing the choices available to individuals is good because it makes people more happy. This is just wrong-headed. Freedom, liberty, the ability to influence one's destiny...these are greater ends than the sort of experienced happiness that gets reported in surveys.

The happy people living in the Matrix were victimes.

Kismat

The Twenty20 finals. It came down to kismat. To a simple twist of fate.

India felt like the team of destiny through this tournament. When is it destiny? And when is it just dumb luck?

Sunday 23 September 2007

For sure. Have I ever had this much fun?

All emotional disengagement from Twenty20 cricket ended yesterday. One of the all time greatest cricket games I've seen. India beat Australia in the Twenty20 World Cup semi-final.

What was terrific was that India didn't scramble home over a lacklustre Australia. Australia played their best cricket. India stayed with them all the way. And pulled the special plays out of the bag to win.

What are my top memories...the ones that will not be captured in the cricinfo report?

Sreesanth's follow through and stare after bowling Gilchrist and Hayden. Nick Knight commented that it was unusual for an Indian bowler. Yeah, right. Joginder Singh's smile when he bowled a dot in the last over. Bhajji doing a bhangra on the boundary line. Robin Uthappa and Gautam Ghambir scampering unlikely, and un-Indian, singles. Gilchrist's ooh-ing grimace after edging Sreesanth to Dhoni; he didn't walk and wasn't given out. Yes, Gilly's still a hero - Gilly is Tubby Taylor's spiritial successor - but let's get real about walking in World Cup semi-finals. Hayden and Symond's ruthlessness in middle overs. The discipline the Aussie quicks kept up through Yuvraj's assault. No gimme balls, no wides, just quality bowling that would have won the game more often than not. Just that today Lee, Clarke, Johnson and Bracken were up against a Yuvraj who was playing out of his skin. To have watched him play in that zone, live, in a semi final...thank you.

Betfair says the likelihood of an India win is 53%. May the force be with India.

Tonight's the night before a World Cup final. Against Pakistan. What will the boys be going through? Will they get to sleep? Will they be able to keep their minds quiet, stay loose, and enjoy the atmosphere without letting the enormity of the occasion sink into their minds?

I think they will. I let myself hope at Lord's and I was proved wrong. Never mind. I'm letting myself hope again.

Thursday 20 September 2007

Are we having fun yet?

The Twenty20 World Cup is well underway.

Some spectacular hitting, close finishes, unexpected heroes. Daniel Vettori and Chris Schofield have been great performers. Yuvraj scored six sixes of a Stuart Broad over yesterday. India have recovered well from around 60-4 to post 150+ against South Africa today (SA haven't started batting at the time of writing).

Yet, through it all, I'm emotionally disengaged. Maybe its all going by too fast.

Great cricket isn't about sixer hitting any more than a great love story is about designer clothing. It takes time to get into the player's skins, to hear their back-stories, reflect on the twists and turns that happen as the game unfolds. It takes time to engage the imagination. It's when the imagination is engaged that cricket is no longer just about slugging the ball 100 yards. Cricket can become high drama. About determination and destiny. About character and human frailty. Cricket becomes a metaphor for life itself.

That happens most effectively in test series, precisely because it is slow moving. Ganguly's India v Waugh's Australia through 2001 - 04. The Ashes in 2005. They were gripping not because of the sixer hitting. Skills served a larger drama. Cricket is fun for the same reason that reading fiction is fun: both invite the use of imagination.

This could change. An India Pakistan final will give even Twenty20 a memorable emotional edge. But so far, its been about guys hitting big sixers. No human drama to capture the imagination, yet.

Tuesday 18 September 2007

Structured Thinking and Writing Resources

Reference books I want on the desk of every person who attends my class on Structured Thinking and Writing:

1. The Pyramid Principle, by Barbard Minto
2. The Elements of Style, by Strunk and White
3. How to Lie With Charts, by Gerald Everett Jones
4. Say it With Presentations, by Gene Zelazny
5. The Visual Display of Quantitative Information, by Edward Tufte.